A Realized Prediction

 

Research the concepts of forecasting and predictions in a business or innovation context

            According to Data Science Blog, a prediction is where you used for “estimating the outcomes for unseen data” while forecasts also estimate outcomes but use a time series.  The difference between these two is this temporal element (Döring, 2018).  With innovations in mind, this can be seen as forecasting relating to ideas that correspond to how the environment is currently trending.  For example, I can see that cell phone accessories were created when cell phone usage was beginning to boom.  Predictions will be those ideas that are thought of outside of the box.  Trends and current factors will not necessarily be a part of their creation.  While ideas generated via forecasts are very useful and practical, when an idea created out of the box is found very useful it can be seen as more of a wonder.

Identify and document one infamous prediction that actually came true

            While there have been many famous predictions that have actually come true including the atomic bomb, Barak Obama’s win in the 2008 election, and James Dean’s death I find the prediction of a second World War after the end of the first particularly interesting (Larkin, 2019).  Ferdinand Foch was a French general that saw the Treaty of Versailles as “an armistice for 20 years.”  Foch was upset that Germany was left largely intact.  What makes this prediction interesting is that Foch predicted the length of the truce very well.  World War II began 20 years and 68 days later (Larkin, 2019).  I can imagine the relief the world felt when the Treaty of Versailles was signed in that train car.  If Foch told me that “(t)his is not peace,” I would have been upset.  War is exhausting on so many levels.  Economically, physically, resourcefully, mentally, and emotionally.  I would have wanted it to be over and to stay over.  I am sure those 20 years came too fast and yet was too much time for Hitler to convince Germany that their loss in World War I was “the Jews' fault.”

Discuss two forces that impacted its success.

            One obvious force is the political one.  When World War I ended, Germany felt like a dog sent home to lick its wounds.  The Treaty of Versailles was not kind to Germany and not only required that Germany take full responsibility for World War I, but pay restitution and damages to the other countries involved (Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica, 2020).  This put Germany in a terrible national depression.

            The force of mass hysteria is one that helped spearhead the animosity and scapegoating that was required to make World War II happen.  Adolf Hitler was a remarkable spokesperson and was very adept at speaking in front of large audiences.  Whether he understood the psychology of large crowds is doubtful, but the power of influence those crowds can have is evident.  He blamed Jewish society for their abysmal loss in World War I and was able to successfully feed this propaganda to increasing numbers of Germans.  At this point, they were looking for hope and a way out of their depression.  Hitler gave them one, regardless of how inhumane and flawed.

References

Döring, M. (2018, December 09). Prediction vs Forecasting. Retrieved from Data Science Blog: https://www.datascienceblog.net/post/machine-learning/forecasting_vs_prediction/

Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. (2020). Treaty of Versailles. Retrieved from Britannica.com: https://www.britannica.com/event/Treaty-of-Versailles-1919

Larkin, B. (2019, October 7). 30 Predictions in History That Came True. Retrieved from Bestlife: https://bestlifeonline.com/historical-predictions/

Shutterstock. (2019, October 7). 30 Prediction in History That Came True. Retrieved from Bestlife: https://i2.wp.com/bestlifeonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/world-war-2-ii-war.jpg?resize=1024%2C684&ssl=1