The Mis-Forecast of E.T.

          One instance where a company would have probably had more success with scenario-type planning was when Atari decided it would be a good idea to release E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial video game in 1982 (Sauter, Comen, Frohlich, & Stebbins, 2018).  It seems to me that because the movie was so successful, Atari thought it would make sense to launch a video game.  I do not see an error in their logic.  What they seemed to not count on or take for granted was that while consumers like a high-quality movie, they would somehow settle for a subpar video game.  The video game was so rushed that when it was finished, it was just that – finished.  It did not sell well and cost a total of $26 million.  It was such an embarrassment that the remaining unpurchased games were buried (Sauter, Comen, Frohlich, & Stebbins, 2018).  This reminds me of the current Cyberpunk 2077 fiasco where the game was so buggy that not only were games returned and refunds disbursed, but the investors are now suing for damages (Cox, 2020). 

            Scenario planning helps innovation and planning for change.  It may take a while to get yourself trained in thinking this way, but as with other habits, once they are established, the easier they are to maintain.  While it is easy to base future actions on how past ones went (standard forecasting) we must not take too much stock into what we already know (Erdmann, Sichel, & Yeung, 2015).  Innovation stems from what is new and novel ideas hardly come from what has already been established.

            Video games were not new when the E.T. game was released yet understanding that movie fans may have different criteria in what they view as a success would have been very beneficial.  This would, in theory, have let programmers know that they should not rush its development and take care of creating a worthwhile product.

            While scenario planning requires thinking through various scenarios, there is a fine line between giving too much weight to very unlikely events.  While many events should be considered, making sure energy is not wasted on unlikely scenarios is important.  Ensuring open communication for scenario planning will help with ideas and solutions as well as acting as a litmus test should a scenario be requiring more effort than necessary (Erdmann, Sichel, & Yeung, 2015).

            I will use scenario planning to ignite innovation.  I will need to think of every trend that can affect my company or business whether this is what I know or not.  If it may affect my business, it holds value.  On the other hand, if one scenario seems almost certain other scenarios should not be ignored.  We must be careful not to put all of our eggs in one basket.  I will need to make sure to keep an open dialogue about various scenarios and keep an open mind.  As far as the future is concerned, stranger things have happened!

 

References

Cox, K. (2020, December 28). CD Projekt Red investors sue company over Cyberpunk 2077 debacle. Retrieved from ArsTechnica: https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/12/cd-projekt-red-investors-sue-company-over-cyberpunk-2077-debacle/

Erdmann, D., Sichel, B., & Yeung, L. (2015, June 1). Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning. Retrieved from McKinsey & Company: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/overcoming-obstacles-to-effective-scenario-planning#

Sauter, M. B., Comen, E., Frohlich, T. C., & Stebbins, S. (2018, July 11). 50 Worst Product Flops of All Time. Retrieved from USA Today: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/07/11/50-worst-product-flops-of-all-time/36734837/

Teaching futures thinking. (2020). Retrieved from scienelearn.org.nz: https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.sciencelearn.org.nz%2Fimages%2Fimages%2F000%2F003%2F178%2Fembed%2FSLH_TT_ACT__Futures_thinking_toolkit_im_Eye_of_the_world_V5a.jpg%3F1522314151&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencelearn.org.nz%2Fres

Top 23 Future Thinking Quotes. (2020). Retrieved from AZQuotes.com: https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azquotes.com%2Fpicture-quotes%2Fquote-change-is-the-law-of-life-and-those-who-look-only-to-the-past-or-present-are-certain-john-f-kennedy-15-61-59.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azquotes.com%2Fquotes